Silver rejects much ideology taught with statistical method in colleges and universities today, specifically the "frequentist" approach of Ronald Fisher, originator of many classical statistical tests and methods. That last idea frames Silver's entire narrative and motivates his pedagogical mission. From such information, it's up to the consumer of such statements to use that information as best they can in dealing with an uncertain future in an age of information overload. What is highly probable is that the voting shares are in these ranges, but not whose share is highest that's another probability question with closer odds. ![]() The shares of the popular vote similarly are ranges including outcomes in which Romney gets the most votes. Such statements give odds on outcomes, including a 17% chance of Romney winning the electoral college. ![]() Silver would like to see the media move away from vague terminology like "Obama has an edge in Ohio" or "Florida still a toss-up state" to probability statements, like "the probability of Obama winning the electoral college is 83%, while the expected fraction won by him of the popular vote is now 50.1% with an error range of ☒%". There is much on the need for improved expressions of uncertainty in all statistical statements, reflecting ranges of probable outcomes and not just single "point estimates" like averages. For example, weather forecasting is used to introduce the idea of "calibration," or how well weather forecasts fit actual weather outcomes. These different topics illustrate different statistical principles. The book includes richly detailed case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis, many of which are violated by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless have important media roles. WhatsApp, LINE and even Telegram might have more users, but they are not as safe as this app.The book emphasizes Silver's skill, which is the practical art of mathematical model building using probability and statistics. Signal is a secure and private instant messaging client that provides an additional layer of safety that other similar apps just don't have. ![]() Not even Signal's servers have access to the information of your groups.Īs you'd expect, Signal lets you send all kinds of files, including pictures, videos, and audio, always protecting them with the same protocol it uses for text messages. Whether you're talking directly to an individual or a group, all your messages are always kept absolutely private. The app uses end-to-end encryption, protecting every message you send to your contacts. There's no independent login, no username or password – the app uses your phone number and your address book, so in theory, you can't pretend to be someone you're not. The app aims to guarantee safe and completely private communication between its users.Īs soon as you start Signal for the first time, you'll notice its security features. This nonprofit software company develops open-source applications and has been supported at various times by Edward Snowden. Signal is an instant messaging app developed by Open Whisper Systems.
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